Analysis: NATO Summit presents political risk for Yoon and Korea-Japan relations
Analysis: NATO Summit presents political risk for Yoon and Korea-Japan relations
The Yoon Administration secured stronger Korea-Japan bilateral relations but further progress will attract stronger public opposition.
Topic: Yoon’s visit to Washington
Event or Trend: Yoon Suk-yeol is on a visit to the US from 8-11 July. The visit includes a stopover in Hawaii to visit the US Indo-Pacific Command; attendance at the NATO Leaders’ Summit; meeting with NATO Indo-Pacific Partner states; a series of bilateral meetings with NATO Member and Partner States, and potentially a formal trilateral summit with Japan and the US.
Significance: The visit will highlight medium term political risks that will increase as late-term opposition to the Yoon Administration grows.
Analysis
The stated purpose of Yoon’s attendance at the NATO Summit is to highlight concerns regarding Russia-North Korea cooperation to NATO members and partners.
In domestic politics, the visit will also be used to highlight achievements of the administration’s foreign policy. Specifically, to demonstrate:
Repositioning of Korea as an Indo-Pacific power.
Strengthened Korea-US bilateral relations.
Strengthened Korea-Japan bilateral relations.
During the visit Yoon will hold bilateral meetings with the leaders of the Czech Republic, Sweden, Finland and Norway, and NATO partner country representatives (Australia, Japan and New Zealand) and push Korea as a secure, reliable supplier of armaments and advanced weapons platforms - the ultimate aim of integration with NATO and its partners.
Yoon’s attendance at the NATO Summit brings three points of medium-term risk.
Trump Administration. The NATO Summit occurs as US domestic politics deals with uncertainty regarding the continuation of Biden’s candidacy. Visuals suggesting Yoon’s support or opposition will impact Korea-US relations if Trump is elected. It’s notable that despite close working relations and shared strategic interests, Australia’s PM Albanese will not attend.
Hypocrisy. Yoon’s attendance will highlight the hypocrisy in Korea’s position regarding the direct supply of armaments and weapons to Ukraine - particularly in light of Russia-North Korea cooperation. In its National Security Strategy and Indo-Pacific Strategy documents, the Yoon Administration prioritizes freedom, rule of law, and democracy. It has yet to demonstrate this in its policy on Ukraine. Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was particularly critical of Korea’s decisions to sell (to donors) rather than donate directly to Ukraine.
Korea-Japan relations. Another trilateral meeting between Korea, Japan, and the US will impact domestic politics. The visuals resulting from Korea, Japan, US security cooperation present the greatest risk with opposition to closer relations with Japan growing.
Korea-Japan relations are highly political. Under the Moon Administration (2017-2022) bilateral relations substantially deteriorated. Supported by US facilitation, the Yoon Administration restored and improved relations.
On 27-29 June, Korea, Japan and the US participated in Freedom Edge, the inaugural multi-domain exercise in international waters just south of Korea’s Jeju Island. The drill was agreed to in August 2023 at the Camp David leaders’ summit and marked a new level of operational integration of concern to China, Russia, and North Korea. The use of Korea, Japan, US trilateral cooperation to further Korea-Japan bilateral ties has started attracting public attention.
On 5 July, the ruling People Power Party (PPP) was forced to apologize for using the term "alliance" instead of “security cooperation” in reference to security ties between Korea, Japan, and the US. The decision to apologize reflects awareness that the public is now starting to pay closer attention. This increases the political risk of a Korea, Japan, US trilateral summit on the sidelines of the NATO Leaders’ Summit.
Outlook
The Korea-Japan-US Trilateral Summit was announced by the US in April 2024 but has not been highlighted in travel itineraries by the Yoon Administration. This signifies sensitivity and awareness that further progress in Korea-Japan bilateral relations facilitated by the US will attract stronger public opposition.