An irrational pursuit of nuclear weapons

South Korea’s reasons for seeking nuclear weapons are not just rational - they’re also behavioral

Attempts to explain South Korea’s growing desire to pursue nuclear weapons often seek to provide rational explanations. They point to North Korea’s advances in nuclear and missile technology; China’s rise; and the fear of abandonment under a Trump presidency.

Rational explanations use causal inferences with the tacit assumption that were such threats removed, South Korea would no longer seek nuclear weapons. But we know that human beings act irrationally. Behavioral issues are just as important. South Korea’s reasons for seeking nuclear weapons are not just rational - they’re also behavioral.

The Washington Declaration of 26 April 2023 addresses the core concerns that proponents in South Korea use to justify the pursuit of nuclear weapons. It provides for the establishment of a Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) to discuss extended deterrence, and nuclear and strategic planning, and reaffirms that any nuclear attack by the DPRK against the ROK would be met with a “swift, overwhelming and …