Analysis: Gen-Z in South Korea's political landscape
The youth vote is emerging as decisive demographic in South Korea's medium-term political landscape but can the parties deliver?
Event or Trend: Gen-Z voters swing between conservative and progressive positions on socioeconomic and political issues and with older voting demographics more stable, political parties are now turning more attention to securing this swing vote.
Significance: In South Korea, Gen-Z voters (currently aged approximately 18-28) are a narrow voting demographic with traditionally limited influence and unpredictable voting patterns, swinging between conservative and progressive parties depending on key issues such as job security, housing, and education.
While they currently lean toward conservative positions due to socioeconomic concerns, their political alignment remains highly fluid, influenced by populist rhetoric on both sides. With older voting demographics more stable, this youth demographic is now attracting political party attention as their highly fluid alignment plays a pivotal role in determining the outcome of increasingly tight elections. This increased relevance also holds significance for public and corporate diplomacy with Gen-Z attitudes more volatile and prone to populist sway.
Analysis: The South Korean Gen-Z vote is dynamic and complex, presenting both opportunities and challenges for political parties in the coming years. Historically, they leaned progressive, particularly on issues of social equality and transparency in government.
Recent trends have shown a shift toward conservative policies, mainly driven by frustrations around economic instability, housing affordability, and job market challenges. There is also a discernible divergence between male and female Gen-Z voter attitudes with the former leaning towards the conservative side, and the latter to the progressive side. However, many young South Koreans are disillusioned by the both parties failure to address these issues effectively.
This shift does not signal a permanent alignment with conservative ideology. The youth vote is highly responsive to populism, making it susceptible to shifts based on the political climate and the emergence of strong, populist leaders from either side. Progressive parties still have an opportunity to regain youth support by addressing economic inequalities and presenting viable solutions to the concerns of younger voters.
There are four topics identified as important to Gen-Z voters:
Housing affordability. Seoul, as the epicenter of Korea’s housing crisis, presents a significant challenge for both conservative and progressive candidates. The younger generation, faced with escalating housing prices, is frustrated by what they perceive as not only the government’s inability to control the market but also their desire to restructure it to favor older generations invested in property.
Job market stagnation. The lack of secure, well-paying jobs despite high levels of education has driven much of the conservative support among young voters. In the same way, the younger generation is frustrated by what they perceive as not only the government’s inability to control the market but also their desire to restructure it to favor employers by increased immigration.
Foreign policy. The younger generation has no first-hand experience of South Korea as anything but a successful, advanced, democratic state. Their attitudes towards North Korea, China, Japan and the U.S. are fundamentally different from previous generations with a focus not on ideology but rather securing immediate benefit and gain.
Political parties will begin to pay more attention to the youth vote. This includes promoting youth party affiliate programs, tailoring messages to address immediate, tangible issues of relevance, and putting forward more candidates able to connect to younger voters. However, the capacity of the two main parties to attract the youth vote are limited.
Youth voters demonstrate a strong preference for leaders who focus on short-term practical deliverables rather than broad ideological positions, which they perceive as empty promises to camouflage self-enrichment. Their distrust of mainstream politics makes them a crucial swing vote in South Korea’s political system. It also makes them more susceptible to populism.
With older voting demographics remaining more stable, the youth vote will play a larger role across the political landscape with the potential to bring more extreme, populist positions into the mainstream, as has been the case with the nuclear weapons debate. This could impact foreign policy issues including Korea-Japan relations, the U.S. alliance and U.S.F.K., and Korea-China relations.
Outlook: In the medium term (1-5 years), the youth vote will remain a pivotal swing factor in Korean political landscape, influenced by populist movements and economic concerns. If conservative policies demonstrate success in their focus on job creation and housing reforms, the youth could remain aligned with the right. Progressives that address income inequality, social justice, and transparency could reclaim this demographic, leading to a potential shift in the balance of power. Maintaining relevance to the youth vote will be key for any party, individual politician, or outside force, seeking political influence in Korea.