Analyze South Korea before turning North

The fanatical focus on North Korea’s sensationalist antics led commentators and analysts to neglect the more important player—South Korea

A surprised world learned last week that Donald Trump had agreed to meet Kim Jong-Un. The unprecedented situation of two South Korean intelligence officials on the White House driveway telling the world that the American president would meet the North Korean leader highlighted a weakness that has long plagued Korean peninsula analysis. The fanatical focus on North Korea’s sensationalist antics led commentators and analysts to neglect the more important player—South Korea.

From an analytical point of view, it has always made more sense to assess and analyse South Korea before turning to North Korea. The trajectory of any crisis on the Korean peninsula is affected as much by the responder’s move as the initiator’s move.

Until recently, South Korea’s responses to North Korea followed a well-worn path—firm resolve, restraint and close coordination with the US. In response, the analytical community became complacent. They assumed that nothing would change—ever. The danger in this complacency…