Dancing in sync or solo? South Korea and the U.S. election

In foreign policy, much like in financial markets, expectations shape outcomes before events unfold

In the coming days, there will be A LOT of articles with commentators giving their advice on what a Harris or Trump Administration would mean for South Korea. It’s a tempting article to write - speculative, easy to spin, and full of news-ready clickbait. However, such articles neglect the fact that South Korea has already factored in the risks and rewards of both a Harris and Trump Administration. To be blunt, the damage has already been done.

In foreign policy, much like in financial markets, expectations shape outcomes before events unfold. Just as markets respond to anticipated changes—whether it’s a central bank's interest rate decision or a major corporation's earnings report—countries adjust their policies and strategies based on what they believe will happen. This concept of "expectation management" plays a crucial role in how states navigate the complex web of global politics.

For instance, when a country anticipates a shift in US foreign policy following an election, it proacti…