Analysis: Foreign policy and South Korea's presidential elections
South Korea’s foreign policy trajectory will be decided by external forces with the determining factor being South Korea’s need to steer a more independent course.
South Korea’s presidential election domestic debate focused on candidate personalities, recent political events, and party politics, amid a strategic landscape reshaped by Donald Trump’s presidency and growing demands regarding tariffs, United States Forces Korea (USFK), and U.S.-China rivalry.
It is tempting to imagine that the choice of a progressive or conservative leader would alter South Korea’s foreign policy, and the state’s interaction with the Trump Administration. This is not the case. South Korea’s foreign policy trajectory will be decided by external forces with the determining factor being South Korea’s need to steer a more independent course.
The result of the election is secondary to the deeper shift already underway: the U.S. is no longer a stable partner. Trump’s transactional diplomacy, unpredictability, and disregard for alliance norms will force the new South Korean administration to urgently recalibrate its foreign relations. The new president, regardless of identity, will inherit a constrained position—required to engage immediately with Washington, while preparing the nation to operate with greater autonomy. Over the medium term, the trajectory will be toward strategic diversification and cautious decoupling.
Analysis. South Korea’s foreign policy has long depended on its alliance with the United States. The U.S. has provided security guarantees, strategic cover, and economic cooperation since the Korean War.