South Korea to China and America: I choose not to choose
In balancing its military alliance with the U.S. and its trade interests with China, South Korea has perfected the George Costanza strategic option
Middle powers do not have the capacity to shape changes in the strategic environment; rather, they react to them. What distinguishes them from smaller powers is their capacity to plan how to react in anticipation of change. If they’re lucky, reaction is planned in advance and they secure advantage. If they’re unlucky, reaction is forced upon them, and they suffer disadvantage - even subjugation, division, or dissolution.
The strategic environment is changing. The choices middle powers make over the next few years, will determine whether their reaction to changes in the strategic environment is planned or whether it is forced upon them.
Historically, in the rare circumstances when major power partners retreat—either due to declining capability or shifting priorities—middle powers face a stark choice: they can double down and increase allegiance to an increasingly unreliable ally; seek alternative arrangements…