Junotane Korea

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South Korea’s post-American Finlandization
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South Korea’s post-American Finlandization

Finland took a "pragmatic" path to survival and stability during the Cold War. It's not in error that the Lee Administration's foreign policy uses the same term.

Jul 15, 2025
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Junotane Korea
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South Korea’s post-American Finlandization
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As U.S. attention drifts away from East Asia, the unthinkable becomes thinkable. For decades, South Korea has relied on the U.S. alliance not just for security against North Korea, but as a strategic foundation—anchoring its diplomacy, economy, and identity. But what if the United States decides, not under duress but by design, to pull back?

No catastrophic rupture. No betrayal. Simply a cold calculation that the costs of dominance in East Asia outweigh the benefits. In this new world, the U.S. becomes an offshore balancer, focused on preventing hegemony in Eurasia without dominating any single region.

Europe, Russia, India, and China all balance each other imperfectly, but none controls the chessboard. And on the periphery of this new multipolar order sits South Korea—prosperous, nervous, and alone. In such a setting, Finlandization—long dismissed as defeatist or outdated—suddenly becomes viable.

Finlandization refers to a foreign policy posture in which a smaller state retains internal sovereignty and formal independence while informally aligning its external behavior—especially in security and diplomacy—with the preferences of a dominant neighboring power. The term emerged during the Cold War to describe Finland’s careful balancing act with the Soviet Union: democratic at home, neutral abroad, and deliberately non-confrontational toward Moscow. It was not formal subjugation, but strategic self-censorship—designed to preserve autonomy by avoiding provocation.

Though often used pejoratively, Finlandization can be a rational survival strategy for small or medium powers in precarious geopolitical environments. Will Korea become East Asia’s Finland?

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