South Korea's Yoon: Return of the prodigal son?

South Korea is a hard analytical target – as the establishment celebrates the revival of an often-uneasy alliance, a closer reading suggests it may well only be temporary

In much of the Washington foreign policy establishment there’s a palpable sense of excitement as Yoon Suk-yeol prepares to take office as South Korea’s next president.

After five years of scaled-down joint exercises, reduced consultations, and disagreements over North Korea policy, the ‘prodigal son’ is returning to the embrace of the US alliance. Yoon promises to restore joint exercises, expand consultation, seek additional Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) deployment, respond firmly to North Korea, align with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), and even seek the return of US strategic nuclear assets to South Korea. But South Korea is a hard analytical target – as the establishment celebrates the revival of an often-uneasy alliance, a closer reading suggests it may well only be temporary.

In the short-term, the Yoon administration will seek to improve the bilateral relationship with the US. But with an historically low approval rating before taking office, the potenti…