Thinking the unthinkable: the collapse of the South Korea-U.S. alliance

Every U.S. official and every U.S. politician says the alliance is ironclad. Strangely, you often hear differently in Seoul

Could the Korea - U.S. alliance end? It seems impossible. Every U.S. official and every U.S. politician says it’s impossible. Strangely, you hear differently here in Seoul. In fact, very differently.

Some say it’s all about Trump. If Trump is elected, the alliance will find itself on precarious ground. South Korea is low-hanging fruit - it’s an easier target than NATO and it’s a soft pick for economic leverage. Others say it has nothing to do with Trump. Even if Harris wins, there’s going to be difficult times ahead. Many in Washington confuse South Korea’s opposition to China’s dominance as pro-American. It’s not. It’s pro-Korean. Korea, they argue, is developing into a state that can steer its own future - the ultimate aim of both conservatives and progressives. Korea’s future in Korea’s hands. Is this how the Korea - U.S. alliance ends?

Let’s look at three factors that could occur (and ensure this is published before Tuesday): (1) a Trump Administration reluctance to uphold defense c…