Trump and Korea - back on the roller coaster
The North Korea Watchers are back on the Trump roller coaster again. The safety bar is down, and the gears are turning.
On Tuesday morning, North Korea watchers in Seoul awoke to the news that President Trump made a video call from the stage at the Commander in Chief Ball, and asked U.S. service members in South Korea a question:
“How’s Kim Jong Un?”
That simple remark shattered four years of calm, some would say boredom, of the Biden administration. It was a jolt. A shock that caught some off guard.
It’s nearly eight years since North Korea watchers woke up to Trump’s threats of "fire and fury". Nearly eight years since Trump’s off-the-cuff remarks that aircraft carrier groups were heading to Korea (when they were going in the opposite direction). Nearly eight years since waking up to reports that Trump was asking about evacuating U.S. citizens from South Korea. Nearly eight years since they routinely scanned Trump’s late-night tweets and off-the-cuff remarks, waited for them to be translated into Korean, saw them disseminate across the domestic media, and then hesitatingly listened as they were regurgitated into confused and chaotic Korean government responses.
The North Korea Watchers are back on the Trump roller coaster again. The safety bar is down, and the gears are turning. The car’s clunking up the incline and you already anticipate the moment it starts thundering down those rickety rails.
What will a second Trump term bring?
There are no plans per se, but there is an agenda. That agenda is centered around two points: self-promotion (as well as fawning and adulation) and self-enrichment. Commentators and pundits have put forward a round of ideas to watch for:
An interlinked early renegotiation of the KORUS FTA and the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) to make a withdrawal from the Korea “ATM”;
Negotiations toward a Korean role in shipbuilding and hi-tech supply chains (from which Korea will seek to reduce impact of other early trade measures);
Greater U.S. attention and/or involvement in Korean Peninsula affairs - dependent on its fit to the agenda - and not necessarily in South Korea's interest. Consequently, this will be closely linked to South Korea’s push for nuclear armament; and
A push to ensure South Korea is not only aligned but an active participant in the neo-Cold War alignment - the last more likely as national security team turnover leads to more neocons filling the ranks.
It’s a pretty full inter-linked schedule and each step has the potential to open new and dangerous paths as much as solve regional problems. Yet, whether anything gets done... That’s uncertain. The range between what could be and what will be is larger than even the most informed care to admit. Literally, anything is possible. In the end, it all comes down to the agenda - self-promotion and self-enrichment.
That’s not to say Trump will necessarily be a negative outcome for the Korean Peninsula. His unconventional approach to diplomacy—marked by a willingness to upend traditional norms—creates opportunities for breakthroughs as well as blunders. Conventional approaches to the Korean Peninsula have gotten nowhere - NOWHERE.
The closest we’ve ever come to ending the seventy years of intermittent tension were through breaking the norms - the Sunshine Policy and Trump’s personal diplomacy. Regardless of which side of the political spectrum you align yourself with, you’d have to admit that it’s these two norm-breaking efforts, which, for just a moment, upended seventy years of failure. Breaking the norms when tradition fails is necessary. Having a plan to follow through and secure advantage after breaking norms - well, that’d just be icing on the cake.
What will a second Trump term mean for you, the North Korea watcher?
For North Korea watchers, another Trump presidency will reignite the frenetic environment of his first term. Trump’s unorthodox style and his penchant for making bold, unexpected moves could once again dominate the discourse, drawing a mix of seasoned experts, opportunists, and self-proclaimed analysts into the fray.
The first Trump administration saw a surge in attention to North Korea, accompanied by a flood of panhandlers and carpetbaggers eager to capitalize on the heightened interest. The sheer volume of commentary, much of it ill-informed or speculative, muddied the waters for policymakers and the public alike.
Another Trump era will revive the market for sensationalism in North Korea analysis. With Trump likely to pursue headline-grabbing initiatives, whether through summits, provocative rhetoric, or sudden policy shifts, the demand for instant analysis and commentary will soar.
If you’re a pop-up North Korea expert, put on your best suit, comb your hair, and start telling the world that “we’re nearer to war than ever before”.
If you’re a genuine North Korea expert, well, your insight’s pretty much useless during a Trump Administration. Grit your teeth, grip your stress ball, and be prepared to navigate a landscape once again defined by unpredictability, noise, and high stakes.
A Trump presidency will be exhilarating, confusing, and sometimes destabilizing. We’re in for another four years of unparalleled intensity. I’ve always said that international relations needs disruption - well, it’s coming whether you like it or not! We’re back on the roller coaster, and it’s just started down a bumpy decline!