What to expect after a North Korean nuclear test

The pattern's in place for North Korea's seventh nuclear test

The Korean Peninsula is currently in a pattern of tit-for-tat provocation: short and long-range missile tests; combined training exercises; artillery live-fire exercises, and border area fighter jet sorties. The pattern in place will reach a new level if and when North Korea undertakes its seventh nuclear test. What will this mean in the context of policy? Here’s what to expect.

Reactive Policy

A nuclear test will force Seoul to act immediately. The Yoon Administration will need to demonstrate to the public that the situation is under control. On the lighter side, this will be visual. Images of Yoon Suk-yeol and his cabinet wearing either yellow jackets or in the extreme, military fatigues, will accompany every broadcast. On the more serious side, it will mean reactive policy.

Reactive policy measures are planned far in advance. They include actions, such as increased joint military maneuvers and/or training; implementation and/or stronger enforcement of economic sanctions, potentially i…